La crisi també es nota a la Xina...

El creixement xinès torna a un únic dígit per primera vegada en quatre anys

La crisi mundial no és aliena a la Xina: el creixement de la gran potència emergent s'ha situat en el 9% en el tercer trimestre després de quatre anys per sobre del 10%. La caiguda de la demanda de les exportacions per la crisi financera als Estats Units i Europa ha contribuït, juntament amb la ralentització del mercat immobiliari intern, a aquest retrocés. En el trimestre anterior, l'economia xinesa havia crescut un 10,1%. Els analistes coincideixen en una previsible tendència a la baixa per als pròxims mesos.



Chinese quarterly GDP growth falls to 9.0%

By Geoff Dyer in Beijing

Published: October 20 2008 05:39 | Last updated: October 20 2008 11:28

China on Monday announced new steps to boost the property market and help exporters after third quarter growth fell to 9.0 per cent, the slowest pace in five years and below forecasts.

The Chinese State Council said it was also preparing increases in infrastructure spending after the growth rate of the economy fell for the fifth month in a row.
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The government also announced that the increase in industrial production had dropped more quickly than expected, although retail sales and investment both accelerated.

With the global economy running the risk of dropping into recession and commodities prices dropping sharply, the extent of China’s economic slow-down is being closely watched.

Economists believe the Chinese economy will slow further, especially if the global financial crisis starts to hurt exports from China. However some believe the authorities can use fiscal policy and interest rate cuts to prevent a sharp fall in growth. The measures announced by the State Council “represent the beginning of a systematic approach adopted by policy-makers to boost economic growth and prevent an economic hard landing,” said Qing Wang, economist at Morgan Stanley.

The 9.0 per cent expansion in GDP in the third quarter was below the consensus forecast of 9.7 per cent and down from 10.1 per cent in the second quarter, although the figures were affected by restrictions on factories during the Olympics to reduce pollution. In the first nine months of the year, the economy expanded by 9.9 per cent.

Although exports have continued to grow by more than 20 per cent this year, officials said the slowing growth reflected the impact of the credit crunch. “The global financial crisis and subsequent slowdown has started and will continue to have a negative impact,” said Li Xiaochao, spokesman at the National Bureau of Statistics. “The sub-prime crisis that broke out last year in the US is still spreading and deepening.”

Industrial production increased by 11.4 per cent in September compared to the year before, the slowest rate of increase since 2002. However, there were some positive indications of underlying strength in the economy including a 17.1 per cent increase in real retail sales, up from 16.8 per cent in August, and continued drop in the rate of inflation to 4.6 per cent, from 4.9 per cent. Factory-gate inflation also moderated from 10.1 per cent in August to 9.1 per cent.

“Growth is slowing but not yet slumping,” said Ben Simpfendorfer, economist at Royal bank of Scotland.

The State Council said that taxes and fees on house purchases would be reduced and that VAT rebates would be increased for exporters of textiles and machinery. However, the scope and timing of such policy changes were not revealed and there is a debate within the government about just how big a fiscal stimulus is needed to prevent a sharp slow-down.